New Orleans, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

531
FXUS64 KLIX 152005
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
305 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

The main change in thinking from yesterday is the removal of any
convective risk for Saturday. Although a frontal boundary is still
expected to drift toward the region, it now looks like the front
will stall and dissipate well north of the area. With the low
level forcing mechanism stalled to the north, and a strong mid-
level capping inversion in place, any development will be very
isolated. Probability of convective development is at most around
10 percent Saturday afternoon, and thus is not included in the
forecast package. However, if a storm does punch through the
capping inversion, it could produce some gusty winds. The end
result will be continued warm and muggy conditions through
Saturday night. Highs will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s
each day with the warmest readings further inland away from any
coastal influences. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s, and
overnight lows will dip toward those dewpoints each night.
Additionally, skies will turn mostly cloudy each night as the
elevated inversion strengthens with the cooling overnight lows.
These clouds will generally start forming after midnight and
scatter out to a mostly sunny sky by the late morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Sunday through Tuesday will be a persistence forecast as deep
layer ridging dominates the Gulf South. Deep layer subsidence will
keep temperatures warmer than average with highs climbing into the
upper 80s and lower 90s each day and lows only dipping into the
low to mid 70s. This subsidence and warming aloft will also keep
the strong mid-level capping inversion in place, and this will
keep convective chances near zero through Tuesday afternoon. The
overnight cloud development will continue to occur as the
inversion strengthens each night, but mostly sunny conditions will
be the rule by the late morning and afternoon hours each day.

Wednesday will see a slight change in the pattern take hold as a
potent northern stream trough axis and associated cold front sweep
through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This fast moving feature
will break down the persistent ridge and allow for the mid-level
capping inversion to weaken. The combination of increased deep
layer forcing, more favorable mid-level lapse rates, and ample
warmth and available moisture will support the development of
scattered convection during the day on Wednesday. At this time,
the convection looks to remain below severe limits with some
locally gusty winds and brief heavy downpours being the main
threats. Temperatures will remain above average in advance of the
front with highs warming back into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
However, in the wake of the front Wednesday night, slightly cooler
and drier will advect into the region allowing lows to dip into
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

The MVFR cloud deck has scattered out over the past few hours, and
this has resulted in VFR conditions developing at all of the
terminals. These VFR conditions will persist through 06z, but
another round of MVFR stratus will redevelop after 06z as the
inversion restrengthens during the overnight hours. Ceilings
ranging between 1000 and 2000 feet will impact all of the
terminals from around 06z through 14 or 15z tomorrow morning.
After 15z, increased thermal mixing of the boundary layer will
once again allow the cloud deck to lift and scatter out into VFR
conditions. PG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A gradually weakening pressure gradient across the coastal waters
will keep winds slightly lower tonight than those observed last
night. As a result, no small craft advisories are in place, but
small craft exercise caution wording will be added to the forecast
for the waters west of Port Fourchon. This will be the final night
of stronger winds as the surface high over the eastern Gulf turns
more dominant this weekend into early next week. The end result
will be a persistent southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots from
tomorrow through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  92  73  92 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  74  91  75  92 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  73  90  74  91 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  89  75  90 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  74  85  75  86 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  73  85  74  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG